Daily Ag Direction 8/13/25
Good Morning!
Big surprise out of USDA that has some scratching their heads. The increase it corn yield was large but we knew an adjustment to the upside was coming. However, coupling that with a big shift in acres with beans losing and corn gaining adds to the pain. Corn yield came in at 188.8 bu./acre which was 7.8 bu./acre higher than the July estimate for a production number of 16.74 billion bushels. This is 1 billion bushels more than the July estimate. Of course this increased carryout and harvested acres increased by 1.9 million bu. Therefore, funds sold an estimated 40k contracts leaving corn well below $4.00 on the Sept and Dec contracts. On the other hand, Soybeans were trading -15cents before the report and closed up over 20 cents. A 2.4 million acre reduction in acres and a higher yield by 1.1 bu./acre was the formula for rocketing bean futures. There is still a lot of talk that Trump is pushing Xi and China to purchase more beans. We will see. So what do we do after the foot stamping is over and the outrage wears off? There is green across the board today revealing the trade’s reluctance to take this report at face value. Many crop tours will fire up in the next few weeks and we will start to get a more realistic view of what is actually happening. Continue to actively market this crop; even if USDA is wrong, there will still be a lot of good corn picked and beans will not be in short supply. Beans are up another 11 cents today offering a continuation in yesterday’s rally and corn has clawed back nearly half of yesterday’s losses. Wheat continues to see export business and is a follower of major corn moves. The WASDE did not offer much new information specifically affecting wheat. Look for rallies in Paris wheat and continued export news to prop up prices.
Sept KC Wheat +2.6 @ $5.14
July 26 KC Wheat +3.6 @ $5.74
Sept Corn +4.4 @ $3.76
Dec 25 Corn +4.0 @ $3.99
Sept Beans +12.2 @ $10.25
Nov 25 Beans +12.4 @ $10.45
Aug Feeders +2.450 @ $347.825
June Live +2.225 @ $238.050
Please reach out to your CEA Risk Management Advisor if you have any questions. Have a great day!
-Trent
