Daily Ag Direction 08/01/25
Good Morning!
August starts unseasonably cool, but the next two weeks look to build in dryer weather and above average temperatures. The December corn market continues to hold it’s head above the $4.00/bu. mark while soybeans continue to feel the wrath of the funds building a net short position, trading well into the $9.00/bu. range. France AgriMer reported French soft wheat harvest at 89% complete, well above year-ago levels at 63%. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange says their wheat plantings are at 98.3% complete with good growing conditions. June soybean crush is estimated at 196.6 million bushels which is down from 203.7 mbu. last month. New crop US Corn export sales exceeded trade estimates this week at 1.892 million tonnes (74.5 million bu.) keeping us on on track for the second fastest pace in the last 12 years. Only 2021 was faster and exhibited aggressive Chinese buying. In summary, good export sales and a tighter balance sheet has many producers wondering why there isn’t more strength in corn. The market will be numb to perceived balance sheet issues until this harvest starts producing actual bushels. Wheat is locked in a marketing channel that it cannot best without a major corn disruption. Soybeans will be weather and export market driven and most perceived risk is priced in with a favorable crop seen on the horizon.
Sept KC Wheat -5.4 @ $5.21
July 26 KC Wheat -3.6 @ $5.81
Sept Corn -0.4 @ $3.94
Dec 25 Corn -0.4 @ $4.14
Sept Beans -0.4 @ $9.70
Nov 25 Beans -0.4 @ $9.90
Aug Feeders +1.425 @ $332.800
June Live +1.700 @ $229.475
Please reach out to your CEA Risk Management Advisor if you have any questions. Have a great day!
-Trent
