Daily Ag Direction 06/16/25
Good Morning!
Wheat trading lower this morning after short covering on Friday. Continued rains across HRW harvest areas are starting to raise serious concerns about quality. Demand is rather light as Algeria tenders for 50k mt of milling wheat and Tunisia purchased 75k mt of milling wheat. Good weather in corn growing regions has that market heading lower dropping support for wheat in the process. Funds increased their net short position by 9.9k contracts bringing the total short to 164k contracts. Brazil’s second corn crop is behind schedule at 5.57% harvested compared to 13.94% a year ago. Brazil is expected to post the second largest crop production on record at 131 million mt. Iran indicating that it wants to engage in ceasefire talks which is dropping crude oil price and putting pressure on grains. This all feels reactionary, but it is a rather slow news day. Beans showing mild strength due to EPA news posted on Friday. There is room to run in the bean oil rally as spec funds are only 44k contracts net long and 52k contracts long in beans. China continues to be the big unknown and stable trade agreements would help bring certainty and likely higher prices.
July KC Wheat -10.6 @ $5.30
July 26 KC Wheat -10.0 @ $6.03
July Corn -11.6 @ $4.33
Dec 25 Corn -8.2 @ $4.35
July Beans -3.2 @ $10.67
Nov 25 Beans -1.4 @ $10.54
Aug Feeders +2.850 @ $309.275
June Live +1.575 @ $226.675
Please reach out to your CEA Risk Management Advisor if you have any questions. Have a great day!
-Trent
