Daily Ag Direction 05/05/25
Good Morning!
Grains under pressure again to start the week. Paris wheat led the selling in the overnight making new contract lows in their September contract. We are set up well to price into the export market now and commercials are buying managed funds short offerings. It looks like managed money is short 500k as of last Wednesday. This is a new record short in KC and the commercials getting heavily involved will be important. Looking at the different exchanges, KC sold 10k, CME sold 31k and MGX sold 2.5k increasing the short by 45k on the week. Taiwan flour millers bought 100k mt of US wheat on Wednesday. Expect crop conditions to improve again this week. Corn trading lower as there appears to be a long stretch of good planting weather in the forecast. Funds liquidated 46k contracts of their corn position for a net short of 93k contracts. The market needs a new scare to change direction right now. US policy news dominates the bean oil market and the slow nature of that process is driving values lower. Beans will feel pressure from good planting weather until commercial buying provides support. China is looking for nearby US beans still and there is hope that a trade deal can be struck and business continues. A lot will hinge on biofuel policy and how much residual supply can be removed by poor weather in the growing season.
July KC Wheat -9.0 @ $5.32
July 26 KC Wheat 0.0 @ $6.11
July Corn -8.0 @ $4.61
Dec 25 Corn -4.6 @ $4.46
July Beans -3.0 @ $10.55
Nov 25 Beans -2.0 @ $10.29
May Feeders 0.650 @ $295.600
June Live +2.200 @ $213.300
Please reach out to your CEA Risk Management Advisor if you have any questions. Have a great day!
-Trent
