Daily Ag Direciton 05/02/25
Good Morning!
We cap off a wild week with some green on the board. Green in wheat comes from KC buying and Paris catching a bid after being closed yesterday. Some believe export business is fueling this positive injection but rumblings about disease across OK and KS is starting to gain steam. Grain quality issues will be a problem in the event forecasts continue to drench wheat and the seesaw in market movement will continue. We could go from removing the weather risk premium from the market to pricing in a quality risk premium in quick succession. Producers that are understandably nervous about wheat values need to consider all of their options when tackling new crop marketing. The market is doing its best to establish support and if it holds we have a lot of contract range above this level. Corn is currently providing support to wheat but a big planted acreage number is already priced in and there isn’t much to move corn markets from a fundamental agronomic perspective. Lagging planting progress could move markets slightly but the complex as a whole is pretty numb to US planting delays until much later in the year. Funds have been net sellers, hopefully that reverses. Chinese business continues in bean trade. If bio-fuel legislation can result in smaller bean stocks then it will be difficult for importers to catch up on the purchase of US beans. Good crush numbers add to the bull’s story and USDA will likely need to elevate the crush number in the May report. More optimism on a resolution to the current trade war is helping securities post a positive move on the day and a less stressful end to the week.
July KC Wheat +13.0 @ $5.41
July 26 KC Wheat +11.6 @ $6.12
July Corn +0.0 @ $4.72
Dec 25 Corn +3.4 @ $4.51
June Beans +8.2 @ $10.58
Nov 25 Beans +7.0 @ $10.31
May Feeders 1.075 @ $294.30
June Live +0.400 @ $210.075
Please reach out to your CEA Risk Management Advisor if you have any questions. Have a great day!
-Trent
